Predict drives a 3.7x ROI through early risk identification

Many care programs show ROI in aggregate, but fail to reach the members most likely to drive near-term costs.

Musculoskeletal care is one of the largest healthcare expenses for employers — but up to half of all surgeries may be unnecessary. Sword Health’s new AI-powered solution, Predict, identifies members at risk and redirects them to proven, lower-cost care. The result? Massive savings, better outcomes, and a smarter approach to MSK treatment.

Validated by matched control studies and third-party research, this white paper reveals how Sword Predict slashes MSK costs and delivers a category-leading 3.7x return on investment.

Why MSK care is broken — and ripe for disruption

MSK conditions like back, neck, and joint pain affect half of all American adults, costing employers more than cancer and diabetes combined. The biggest driver? Surgery. But up to 50% of MSK surgeries are unnecessary — adding cost without improving outcomes.

Sword Predict: Built to prevent unnecessary care

Predict uses AI to spot members 10–40x more likely to get surgery — months in advance. By enrolling them in high-touch digital PT instead, Sword helps employers and health plans avoid excessive spend on MRIs, injections, and invasive procedures.

Real savings. Real outcomes.

• 70% reduction in surgery intent
• 41.6% fewer ancillary services
• 10% drop in MSK-related MRIs
• 35% reduction in spine surgeries

Download the full white paper to see how Predict is transforming MSK cost containment — with full methodology, claims analysis, and proven savings.